Tuna Chain is a modular Layer 2 solution that functions on Bitcoin while also integrating with Ethereum. Learn more about how it works in this article.

 is rightfully known for its security through its use of 

 offers greater versatility. Until recently, blockchain projects had to choose between the two. Now, however, a hybrid solution is available that blends the benefits of both of these leading blockchains and takes a bold leap into the future.

 that functions on Bitcoin while also integrating with Ethereum.

) is strongly rooted in elevating the user experience (UX). Bitcoin is the most trusted cryptocurrency, largely due to the recognized strength of its security protocols. However, while it excels in security, it lacks the versatility that ultimately fosters innovation. In this regard, Ethereum is viewed as a superior blockchain. 

Tuna Chain’s modular Layer 2 solution works on Bitcoin through a 

 hybrid layer while offering Ethereum functionality. It uses 

-powered modularity to minimize transaction costs. At the same time, this modularity improves both trust and efficiency. Tuna Chain currently supports Solana, Ethereum and Bitcoin transactions. It works with Bybit, Phantom, MetaMask, UniSat Wallet and OKX Wallet.

Tuna Chain is a new project that was established by three unknown individuals, known under the names of Tuna Nigiri, Tuna Sushi and Tuna Sashimi. Each team member brings their unique experiences and knowledge with blockchain, cryptography and 

 to move Tuna Chain forward. Tuna Chain is financially supported by BSC News, Normie Capital, Serafund, ArkStream Capital, Cogitent Ventures, MH Ventures and other angel investors. After its Ocean Festival and Ocean Trio, Tuna Chain now has over 1.3 million wallets connected on the Tuna Chain Testnet, with a total 

The purpose of Tuna Chain is to bridge the gap between Bitcoin and Ethereum. Although Bitcoin’s chain boasts superlative security, it lacks the versatility that Ethereum’s 

 provides. As a hybrid Layer 2 solution, Tuna Chain’s primary goal is to blend the two. By doing so, its founders want to push the envelope on the future of blockchains and provide a better UX.

Tuna Chain’s functionality is based on three core features: the Toro native 

, Celestia-powered modularity and a hybrid ZK-OP layer. With the Toro stablecoin, users can purchase new digital assets through the overcollateralization of their BTC supply. Meanwhile, Celestia-powered modularity improves data availability, and the ZK-OP hybrid layer executes smart contracts with fast, secure transactions.

Rollup Solutions and Operational Mechanism of Bitcoin Layer 2

Layer 2 solutions similar to those found on Ethereum enhance Bitcoin's scalability, using technologies such as 

 (ZK). Tuna Chain enhances Bitcoin's transaction capacity by integrating optimistic rollup technology into its Layer 2 framework.

Securing Native Assets on Bitcoin: Leveraging Taproot's Upgrade

 upgrade into the Bitcoin network marks a significant advancement in the security of its native assets. This update incorporates advanced cryptographic techniques, such as Schnorr Signatures, MAST and Tapscript. To further secure these assets, Tuna Chain has implemented a multisignature security model and is exploring the addition of external validators to its network security protocols.

Tuna Chain processes transactions through a detailed system that begins with the precise arrangement and execution of transactions. These are then reliably recorded on 

's data availability layer and conclusively verified on the Bitcoin blockchain. Verifiers are essential to the chain's integrity, quickly producing fraudproofs to address any transaction discrepancies and ensure the network remains secure and reliable.

Tuna Chain is a next-level Layer 2 solution that moves blockchain into the future. Each of its core features provides unique benefits to support a superior UX. 

Tuna Chain uses Celestia-powered modularity to optimize its Layer 2 functionality. Specifically, this modularity is supported by Layer 2 data management that enhances trust, improves efficiency and reduces transaction fees.

The ZK-OP Layer is Tuna Chain’s hybrid Layer 2. This layer utilizes a dual-phase architecture that integrates Ethereum’s benefits with those of Bitcoin. By doing so, it empowers smart contracts and accelerates secure transactions.

 is a grand opening event celebrating Tuna Chain’s launch. During this grand opening, the first round of TUN tokens will be distributed. Distribution cap for this initial release is based on 

 growth driven by the community, and could range between 2% and 21%. The token supply increases by 2% as each new milestone is achieved.

, the setup experience for new community members, consists of Calm Waters, Whimsical Tides and Majestic Depths. With Calm Waters, new users can receive 60 points for following Tuna Chain on social media and linking their wallet. Additional points are available by referring friends to Tuna Chain. Whimsical Tides, the testnet phase, is still in development along with Majestic Depths.

In the first quarter of 2024, Tuna Chain successfully completed several milestones, including the launch of the Tuna Testnet — Alpha, Ocean Trio Points campaign, Ocean Festival (which highlights the TVL) and the rollout of the TunaChain Explorer. 

Moving into Q2 2024, progress is ongoing with significant developments. Tuna Chain’s team is currently deploying an optimistic rollup (OP)-based Mainnet, establishing a native bridge from Bitcoin to the Tuna Mainnet, launching a Mainnet decentralized exchange (

), and developing a modular data availability (DA) layer.

Tuna Chain functions with three primary tokens: TORO, TUNA and WOOG. Each serves a different and integral role.

TORO, Tuna Chain’s native stablecoin, helps users transform their BTC into their choice of high-yield digital assets. This is accomplished seamlessly and with full transactional stability. The user doesn’t need to liquidate the BTC to complete the transaction.

 of Tuna Chain, is used for various purposes, such as revenue generation, funding builders and contributors, benefiting token holders, incentivizing users and community members, and promoting community engagement within the Tuna Chain ecosystem.

TUNA has a total token supply of 210,000,000.

 token that acts as the primary ticket into the Tuna Chain ecosystem. Only 200 of 1,000 available WOOG tokens were distributed at the BRC-20 Launchpad event. The remaining WOOG will be distributed only when they’re activated by external forces.

Looking to get your hands on the TUNA token? Bybit will soon offer it via our 

In the meantime, you can also purchase TUNA through 

WOOG tokens grant access to the Tuna Chain ecosystem. Of the total supply of 1,000 tokens, only 200 are currently scheduled to be released. These tokens are exclusively available through the 

. There’s a purchase limit of one WOOG token. While 800 WOOG tokens will remain, they’re sealed, and their release isn’t scheduled. You must have an active Bybit account with a funded wallet to participate in the event. 

TUNA tokens play a fundamental role in governance of the Tuna Chain’s unique hybrid Layer 2 chain, designed to deliver the benefits offered by both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Tuna Chain is presented as the future of blockchain, and is poised to change the blockchain landscape in exciting ways, which could place a premium on TUNA tokens. 

As an investment, TUNA should be purchased conscientiously because the value of the tokens will decrease when additional tokens are released, even for a short period of time. In addition, all cryptocurrencies are speculative in nature, with a risk of partial or complete loss. Therefore, 

 cryptocurrencies before making an investment.

Tuna Chain is a hybrid Layer 2 solution that provides a much-needed service in the blockchain world. By bridging the gap between Bitcoin and Ethereum, it allows users to enjoy the best of both worlds. In doing so, it has the potential to move the dial forward significantly in blockchain technology. Moving forward, Tuna Chain is a platform worthy of attention.

Intermediate

FEB24_R43_Tuna_Chain_(WOOG)_Reinventing_Bitcoin_with_a_ZK-OP_Approach_(1).png

Tuna Chain (TUNA): Reinventing Bitcoin With a ZK-OP Approach

Notable Ethereum Spot ETF applications have come from high-profile issuers that received approval for Bitcoin Spot ETFs earlier this year. Learn more here.

The cryptocurrency landscape could be on the brink of a major shake-up as several Ethereum spot exchange-traded fund (

) applications await regulatory approval. These financial instruments promise to bridge the gap between traditional investment markets and the fast-growing world of digital assets, offering investors a regulated and accessible means for gaining exposure to 

This article explores the top pending Ethereum Spot ETF applications, exploring their significance, potential impact on the market and implications for the broader adoption of cryptocurrencies.

What Is an Ethereum Spot ETF Application?

An Ethereum Spot ETF application is a filing submitted to regulatory bodies, such as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), to list an exchange-traded fund that tracks the price of Ether (ETH), allowing investors to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency without directly holding it.

How Does an Ethereum Spot ETF Application Work?

An Ethereum Spot ETF application is a formal request by a financial institution to gain regulatory approval to offer a financial product that tracks the price of Ether (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency and the token of the Ethereum network, in real time. 

Investors can participate in the ETF by purchasing shares through their brokerage accounts. This way, they can gain exposure to Ether's price movements without the complexities associated with directly buying or holding the cryptocurrency. The ETF provider assumes responsibility for securely holding the Ether, managing the fund's day-to-day operations and ensuring ongoing compliance with regulatory requirements.

Current Ethereum Spot ETF Application Landscape

, Fidelity, VanEck and ARK 21Shares have all thrown their hats into the ring by submitting applications to the SEC for approval. These particular issuers have previously applied to run Bitcoin Spot ETFs that are currently approved and trading.

However, the SEC has pushed back on the recent Ethereum Spot ETF applications, prolonging the decision-making process. They've also sought public feedback in order to gauge whether the arguments supporting the approval of Bitcoin Spot ETFs are applicable to Ethereum Spot ETFs as well.

Anticipation has continued to build with the approach of the final deadlines for the SEC's decisions, set for between May 23 and Jul 5, 2024 for various applicants. The SEC's review process involves assessing factors such as the potential for market manipulation and the resemblance between Ethereum spot and futures exchange-traded products.

The outcome of these applications holds significant weight, as it could shape the future landscape of cryptocurrency investment vehicles and play an important role in driving broader adoption of Ethereum within traditional financial markets. Investors and observers alike are closely monitoring these developments, recognizing their potential to influence the trajectory of both Ethereum and the wider crypto market.

Top High-Profile Ethereum Spot ETF Applications

Several high-profile financial institutions have applied for Ethereum Spot ETFs, reflecting a growing interest in cryptocurrency investment products. Following is a list of some notable contenders.

BlackRock, a global investment giant and the world’s largest asset manager, submitted its 

 Ethereum Trust, in November 2023. However, the SEC postponed its decision to late January 2024 and again to March. The SEC is currently seeking public comment on the application, particularly concerning Ethereum’s susceptibility to fraud, and has delayed its decision until Jun 11, 2024.

Franklin Templeton, another major player in the investment world, 

 for an Ethereum Spot ETF in February 2024, making it the latest contender to join several other firms in the race. The SEC has delayed the deadline to June 2024 to rule on the firm’s application. If approved, the fund will be listed on the Chicago Board Options Exchange as Franklin Ethereum ETF.

Known for its ETFs and mutual funds, investment management firm VanEck has expressed doubts about the SEC's approval of its Ethereum Spot ETF application, 

 in July 2021. Although the SEC’s decision is expected in May 2024, VanEck’s CEO has voiced his skepticism of approval by the May 23, 2024 deadline, citing the regulators' ominous silence. Notably, VanEck holds the distinction of being the first investment management firm to file an ETH Spot ETF application in the United States.

21Shares specializes in cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (

), while ARK Invest focuses on thematic investing. The two firms 

 for the ARK 21Shares Ethereum ETF in September 2023, with the SEC expected to decide by May 24, 2024. The application has been 

 to include a cash-creation model, and has proposed plans to stake a portion of the ETF’s Ether for generating additional income.

A global asset manager focused on cryptocurrencies, Hashdex 

 with the SEC in September 2023 to list and trade shares of the 

 its decision on the application, with a verdict expected by late May 2024.

Grayscale is the world’s largest digital currency asset manager, with a range of investment products that provides exposure to cryptocurrencies and the digital currency asset class. The firm 

 its Grayscale Ethereum Trust into an Ether Spot ETF in October 2023. The SEC extended the review period, setting a new deadline for June 2024. 

Invesco, an investment management firm, has partnered with Galaxy Digital, a diversified financial services firm, to create a 

 for an Ethereum Spot ETF to be named the Invesco Galaxy Ethereum ETF. The SEC's decision, expected in December 2023, has been 

Fidelity Investments is a major financial services corporation with a global presence and millions of customers. Fidelity first filed for an Ethereum Spot ETF in November 2023. It later 

 its application in March 2024 to include ETH staking, which would allow investors to earn additional income from staking rewards. The SEC has set a deadline of May 23, 2024 to approve or deny the application.

What Could Happen If an Ethereum Spot ETF Application Is Approved?

The approval of an Ethereum Spot ETF application holds significant implications for the cryptocurrency market.

Approval of an Ethereum Spot ETF could mark a significant milestone for the crypto market. It would greatly improve Ethereum's accessibility, bolster market confidence and potentially drive up Ether’s price. In addition, such an approval would represent a new milestone in cryptocurrency adoption, providing investors with a regulated and easy avenue for investing in Ethereum. Nevertheless, regulatory hurdles and market volatility are variables that could influence the timing and magnitude of the approval of the pending applications.

ethereum spot etf applications featured image

APR24_R29_An_Overview_of_Top_Pending_Ethereum_Spot_ETF_Applications.png

An Overview of the Top Pending Ethereum Spot ETF Applications

Merlin Starter (MSTAR) is an IDO launchpad and accelerator dedicated to supporting Layer 2 projects for Bitcoin native asset applications.

Over the last couple of years, projects aiming to develop the wider Bitcoin (

) crypto ecosystem have been gaining more attention in the crypto industry, taking some focus away from 

-based initiatives. With the arrival of projects such as 

, one might even say that the Bitcoin ecosystem is experiencing a kind of innovative development that characterized Ethereum's heyday between 2015 and 2020.

Among the projects driving this phenomenon are Merlin Chain (MERL) and its integral Merlin Starter (MSTAR). Merlin Chain is a Bitcoin Layer 2 (L2) platform committed to supporting utilization and enhanced liquidity for Bitcoin native assets, while Merlin Starter, a Bitcoin-focused 

 and L2 project accelerator, is a core part of the wider Merlin ecosystem,

 (MSTAR) is an IDO launchpad and Layer 2 accelerator dedicated to supporting promising Bitcoin-focused decentralized projects.

 It's an integral part of the L2 Merlin Chain (MERL), designed to facilitate a seamless flow of Bitcoin native assets across various protocols in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Merlin Starter aims to support projects dedicated to enhancing the circulation and liquidity of Bitcoin native assets, both on Merlin Chain and across a variety of Bitcoin-focused protocols and networks.

Founded in 2023, the Merlin project launched its operations in early 2024, with Merlin Starter's native MSTAR token debuting in mid-April 2024.

Merlin Starter is made up of two main components — an 

 launchpad and a Bitcoin Layer 2 project accelerator. Additionally, the 

 NFT collection is a critical element within the project's ecosystem.

The IDO launchpad on Merlin Starter facilitates the launch of projects dedicated to native asset issuance, enhanced 

 and free asset circulation for the Bitcoin ecosystem. It's the first native launchpad of the Merlin platform. The launchpad also supports new projects that explore cross-chain functionality and focus on enabling Bitcoin native assets across different platforms.

As of late April 2024, the launchpad is still in the early stages of its operation, but already lists a couple of initial projects that it’s helped to launch. The most recent of these is Sparkle (FCFS), a gamified astrology app.

The Merlin Starter launchpad offers a number of different token launch modes, including 

, oversubscription lotteries and allocations based on preset weightings. A variety of token standards are supported, including the highly popular 

 and ERC-20 as well as the less common BRC-420, ERC-404 and Atomicals (ARC-20). Standards supporting cross-chain assets may also be available. 

Merlin Starter’s IDO launchpad also features an insurance protocol that helps protect investors from either 7-day or 14-day loss.

While the Merlin Starter IDO launchpad is dedicated to facilitating the launch of new tokens, its accelerator is an initiative aimed at providing consultancy and support to L2 apps and protocols at the pre-launch stage, as well as in the critical post-launch period.

Via the accelerator, the Merlin Starter team offers multidisciplinary consultancy services in areas such as technical support, marketing strategies and initiatives, human resources and 

Merlin's Spellbook is an NFT collection issued by Merlin Starter. Spellbook NFTs grant holders eligibility for a 20,000,000 MSTAR token airdrop, should they choose to stake the NFT. Staking a Spellbook NFT in exchange for MSTAR locks the NFT, and the NFT is subsequently burned. As an NFT staker, you may also qualify (depending upon random selection) for IDO whitelist entries.

At the center of the wider Merlin ecosystem, Merlin Chain is an L2 platform dedicated to enabling cross-chain applications utilizing Bitcoin native assets. Although it operates as a dedicated Bitcoin L2 network, Merlin Chain also offers 

 (EVM) compatibility in order to better support cross-chain use cases.

 network, which allows it to achieve significant scalability and cost efficiencies. The average block time on the chain is less than one second, while the average transaction fee is measured in tiny fractions of a cent.

Merlin Starter's native crypto, MSTAR, is a recently launched token (April 2024) that’s used for the following functions on the IDO launchpad:

The token's maximum and total supply is 1 billion. Supply allocation shares for MSTAR are shown in the chart below.

You can buy the MSTAR token on Bybit through a Spot pair with USDT (

). Additionally, you can join Bybit's MSTAR campaigns to grab a share of the 

The first campaign, MSTAR Community Airdrop Quest, runs through May 10, 2024, 8AM UTC. It’s offering a total prize pool of 8,900,000 MSTAR, featuring a 7,000,000 MSTAR community airdrop, a 1,000,000 MSTAR referral prize pool and an exclusive affiliate referral event with a 900,000 MSTAR prize pool. The second campaign, Token Splash, is being held through Apr 30, 2024, 9AM UTC, with a 2,800,000 MSTAR prize pool.

As a plethora of projects such as Merlin Starter look to extend Bitcoin's functionality, its blockchain is steadily moving away from a passive state of use that’s reserved for asset transfers and storage. Merlin Starter is contributing a great deal to putting Bitcoin native assets to use in various apps and protocols.

While Merlin Chain is doing the critical job of enabling the actual utilization of assets via its Layer 2 network, Merlin Starter is a pivotal endeavor aimed at supporting numerous new projects looking to make Bitcoin a more active crypto environment. The more of these projects we see, the more likely it is that Bitcoin will develop into a thriving ecosystem that could rival Ethereum’s. To achieve such a goal, Merlin Starter is exactly the catalyst the industry needs.

Merlin_Starter_mstar.png

Merlin Starter (MSTAR): Empowering Startups and Innovation

Bybit Arbitrage is a trading tool that simplifies arbitrage trading by capitalizing on funding rate and price differences.

If you're seeking consistent returns with minimal risk, Bybit Arbitrage is the perfect ally.

 This robust tool empowers you to generate regular profits with minimal risks by capitalizing on price disparities across different markets. Its user-friendly interface lets you easily spot and exploit these differences, so that you can execute flawless arbitrage trading in the crypto market with confidence. Read on to learn how Bybit Arbitrage makes arbitrage trading an effortless way for you to achieve low-risk gains.

 is the buying and selling of the same or similar asset(s) at the same time across different markets to earn from slight price deviations. This act of purchasing an asset at a fixed price — while simultaneously selling it at a higher price — allows a trader to instantly make profits without any risks. 

While arbitrage trading has long been a staple in traditional financial markets, such as stock and forex, the advent of crypto trading has propelled arbitrage trading to new heights — thanks to the heightened volatility of the crypto market. Additionally, unlike traditional stock markets, crypto markets are traded 24/7, offering more opportunities for arbitrage traders to reap profits from the price gaps across exchanges and markets. 

 across exchanges or within a single exchange. Keep in mind that if you opt to arbitrage trade across different platforms, accessing your profits may prove to be complex, due to the need to transfer your assets between the exchanges, which can take up to several days to complete. On the other hand, arbitrage trading on a single platform is more straightforward — but more competitive as well.

There are multiple arbitrage trading strategies, but the most common ones in the crypto market include funding rates arbitrage, spot-futures arbitrage and futures arbitrage. 

Funding rates arbitrage allows traders to profit from variations in funding rates between 

 contracts. In contrast, spot-futures arbitrage enables traders to profit from price disparities between the spot and 

 for the same asset. Meanwhile, futures arbitrage involves profiting from price discrepancies between futures contracts with different expiration dates.

Bybit Arbitrage is a trading tool that helps traders identify arbitrage trading opportunities in two ways: funding rate and spread. 

The user-friendly interface organizes trading pairs based on either funding rates or spreads in different markets, so that traders can easily spot disparities in funding rate or price across the markets at a glance. 

Bybit Arbitrage is exclusively available to 

 mode. It facilitates arbitrage trading for USDT Perpetual, USDC Perpetual and USDC Futures contracts, thereby allowing you to enjoy arbitrage trading opportunities between USDT 

Spot pairs and USDT Perpetual pairs, or USDC Spot pairs and USDC Perpetual/Futures pairs. 

The Funding Rate Arbitrage feature exploits differences in funding rates between the Spot and Perpetual/Futures markets on the Bybit exchange. With the Funding Rate feature, traders can earn funding fees while simultaneously managing their positions in order to minimize potential losses and maximize gains through positive and negative arbitrage strategies.

Funding rates for the different trading pairs are listed in descending order. This helps traders to easily leverage the interest rate differential between Spot and Perpetual/Futures contracts.

The Funding Rate feature also allows you to 

 orders (with the same amount, but in different directions) in both Spot and Perpetual/Futures, which enables you to earn funding fees while mitigating potential losses (with potential gains).

holders in Futures/Perpetual contracts pay short position holders. You can leverage this situation by executing a positive arbitrage, which involves

 buying a Spot pair and taking a short position in 

Perpetual to earn steady funding fees. Alternatively, if the funding fee is negative, short position holders pay long position holders. In this case, you would perform a negative arbitrage by shorting a Spot pair and going long in a 

The Spread Arbitrage feature helps traders capitalize on price discrepancies between different markets for the same cryptocurrency asset. With this feature, you can easily compare the market prices of an asset traded across various trading pairs and contracts. While Spread Arbitrage may be similar to spot-futures arbitrage, it offers more arbitrage opportunities since it covers a broader range of markets, unlike spot-futures arbitrage, which targets specific markets

With Spread Arbitrage, the aim is to profit from the eventual price convergence as you buy the crypto asset at a lower price in one market (e.g., Spot) and sell it at a higher price in another market (e.g., Futures). 

As the futures price will eventually align with the Spot price when the contract expires, you’ll be able to take advantage of the simultaneous price disparity for the same asset.

In order to trade with Bybit Arbitrage, you’ll first need to 

. Currently, Bybit Arbitrage is exclusively accessible via the 

 for the web version, which will be launched soon!

Bybit Arbitrage offers multiple advantages.

Bybit Arbitrage is a powerful tool for traders seeking low-risk gains in the volatile crypto market. With its intuitive interface and exclusive features, traders can effectively leverage funding rate and price differences to maximize profits while minimizing risks. Bybit Arbitrage offers diverse benefits that make arbitrage trading more accessible and profitable than ever before.

Beginner

Bybit_funding_fee_arbitrage.png

How to Use Bybit Arbitrage to Achieve Funding Rate and Price Difference Arbitrage

Indicators

Investing

Trading

The Buffett Indicator is widely used to determine if the stock market pricing is overvalued or undervalued. But does it apply in the crypto market? Find out now!

market-capitalization-to-gdp.jpeg

Wilshire_5000_Index.png

Gross_Domestic_Product_GDP.png

Crypto_market_cap.png

us-buffett-indicator-ratio.png

buffett-indicator-standard-deviations.png

us-buffett-indicator-ratio-std-dev-bands.png

10-year-usd-government-yield.png

buffett-indicator-crypto.png

The Buffett Indicator (BI) is a tool used by long-term investors to determine if the current stock market pricing is overvalued or undervalued. It’s a relatively simple calculation that compares the total stock market value to the economic output of the nation.

Theoretically, we can also use the Buffett Indicator to understand the relative valuation of the crypto market. However, there are extensive differences between the stock market and the crypto market which make comparisons with the Buffett Indicator challenging. 

 to GDP) is a valuation used to determine if the aggregate stock market is relatively cheap or expensive at a given point in time.

The idea behind the indicator is that the value of a company’s share price will follow the rise and fall of the nation’s economic production. The Buffett Indicator is a longer-term model, as the stock market can remain far away from reasonable valuations for extended periods. The indicator is named after famed investor Warren Buffett, chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, who is known for buying and holding investments for decades at a time.

At one point, it was rumored that Warren Buffett called this ratio of market cap to GDP “the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.” We don’t know for sure if Mr. Buffett did make those comments. 

However, in the last 15 years, a series of dynamic factors — including suppressed and negative interest rates, unprecedented government stimulus in response to the pandemic and rapid fluctuations in interest rates — have contributed to a volatile trend in stock market valuations.

The BI Calculation of Market Valuation (CMV)

The Buffett Indicator is the ratio of the total stock market valuation to GDP. For example, if the aggregate value of all assets on the U.S. market adds up to $40 trillion, and the value of all goods and services produced in the United States is $20 trillion, then the value of the stock market is twice that of the U.S. GDP, meaning the Buffett Indicator would produce a value of 200%.

The numerator of the ratio is the total market value. It’s common to use the Wilshire 5000 index as a proxy for the market’s value, providing a good cross-section of the total economy.

As of August 2023, the Wilshire 5000 Index has a market value of $42.3 trillion.

The Buffett Indicator was created to be a stock market valuation tool. Could it be useful within emerging markets like the crypto market as well?

Theoretically, we can create a Buffett Indicator for crypto. The types of data and statistics used within the stock market can also be found for cryptocurrencies. For example, the denominator of the calculation is GDP. This remains the same whether you’re implying the concept in stocks or cryptocurrencies.

The numerator of the Buffett Indicator is the total size of the U.S. stock market or the market capitalization. We can also determine the market capitalization of the crypto market.

When we combine the stock market valuation with the GDP to create the Buffett Indicator, we get a result that looks like this:

Growth in GDP should create growth in total market valuations, and vice versa. When the figures aren’t moving in the same direction at the same speed, then you tend to see peaks and valleys within the Buffett Indicator’s trend.

Until the mid-1990s, the Buffett Indicator oscillated between 40% and 100%. Then, as the internet bubble began to heat up, the Buffett Indicator accelerated to 150%. The 2008 financial crisis and credit squeeze brought the indicator back down toward normal levels, near 50%. 

Since then, the indicator has climbed to a high of 200% and a recent low of 150%.

Increasing efficiency and improvement in technology within the economy would naturally drive the Buffett Indicator higher. As a result, an exponential trend line is added to the Buffett Indicator to accommodate these improvements.

Let’s adjust the chart to make the exponential trend line the new base. Then, any values above the trend line would show a positive deviation, and any value below the trend line is considered a negative deviation.

Any positive deviations are above trend and considered expensive, while negative deviations are considered cheap.

Valuations near the middle of the chart are near their exponential average and are seen as fairly valued.

The Buffett Indicator reached extremely low levels in the mid-1970s–80s and, most recently, during the 2008 financial crisis. At these times of inexpensive valuations, the market pricing was considered cheap and a good value.

What to Do When the BI Ratio Is High or Low

When the market has reached extremely high levels, pressing beyond +2 standard deviations, future returns are severely diminished. On the other hand, buying the market when the ratio is trading at a huge discount, near −2 standard deviations or lower, means that you’re picking up great value, with the potential for good returns into the future.

However, the market can remain overbought or oversold for long periods. Therefore, the Buffett Indicator is not designed to be a short-term market timing tool. However, it can help you identify when longer-term value is at hand for a better chance at longer-term gains.

When the indicator is greater than two standard deviations above trend, it generally suggests caution is warranted, as the potential for future gains is bleak. Here are a few actions you can take when the market sits within extreme overvaluation.

Within crypto, some coins and tokens are riskier and more speculative than others. Brand new cryptocurrencies that just launched which do not have a long history are a lot riskier than your large-market cap cryptos such as 

Consider closing out some of these dicier cryptocurrencies — because they’ll be the ones that crash the hardest when the market ends up correcting lower.

 has been especially long, it’s possible that the crypto portion of your overall portfolio is too heavy. When the Buffett Indicator is at a high level, that’s a good time to close out of some positions and reduce the exposure in order to increase your stablecoin stash. The stablecoin crypto can be used to beef up savings or transfer it to fiat cash so you can park it into other safe-haven investments.

3. Seek Out Income-Producing Opportunities

A high Buffett Indicator value suggests a downturn may be lurking. One way to extract more value in a downtrend is to invest in income-seeking opportunities. This may include loaning out your stablecoins or other cryptos to earn interest. This way, when regular income is difficult to come by, your investment can pay cash income if the economy tanks.

When the Buffett Indicator is at extremely low levels, you’ll want to reverse some of the suggestions above. For example, if a new bull run is about to kick off, then small-cap stocks tend to appreciate more than large-cap stocks do. This is because the stocks are small, and any large investment drives their values higher more quickly.

Additionally, when the Buffett Indicator is near extreme lows and a new bull run is about to kick off, look to sell out of safe-haven investments and deploy those funds into growth and emerging market opportunities. 

Can the Buffett Indicator Effectively Measure Crypto Market Valuations?

Grab Up to 5,000 USDT in Rewards

Grab Up to 5,000 USDT in Rewards