Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report delves into macro events; the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume; and futures, options and perpetual contracts.

In the past week, cryptocurrencies have surged as optimism grows that the US-China trade war may be easing. Following two days of talks, the US announced a 90-day tariff reduction on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%. ETH has been the biggest winner among the top 10 tokens, rising 40% in a week, though this has led to significant changes in implied volatility. BTC regained $100K for the first time since early February, with positive bias in OTM call skews, but its volatility market remains weak compared to ETH.

Please check out the report’s highlights.

Open interest for ETH surged by $900M over the past week, coinciding with a 40% rise in its spot price. This increase followed US-China trade negotiations, leading to a temporary 30% tariff reduction on Chinese goods. On May 12, 2025, after US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent confirmed the agreement, open interest and perpetual trading volumes hit monthly highs of $9B and $23B, respectively. While open interest has stabilized, trading volumes declined after peaking during a brief pause in the crypto rally between May 11 and 12, 2025.

BTC volatility smiles suggest risk-on sentiment

Despite low short-term volatility expectations, BTC's short-tenor smiles indicate a continued risk-on sentiment, with a 5% skew toward out-of-the-money calls. Early in the week, put option volume surpassed $200M, outpacing $140M for calls, while open interest remains higher for puts than calls.

ETH has outperformed BTC for the second consecutive week, achieving a remarkable 59% return over the past month. This rally came with volatility: ETH's front-end volatility briefly doubled BTC’s 7-day tenor, leading to an inverted term structure. By Monday, ETH had pulled back some gains, causing front-end volatility to drop swiftly, a faster resolution than seen in previous inversions.

However, another rise in spot price toward $2.6K reignited volatility expectations. Open interest and options trading for ETH remain skewed toward calls, with volumes exceeding $150M on May 13, 2025, coinciding with a second price surge after a brief retreat on May 12, 2025.

Advanced

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Bybit X Block Scholes crypto derivatives analytics report (May 14, 2025): BTC volatility remains weak relative to ETH

Strategic Bitcoin reserve (SBR): Established on March 6, 2025, integrating Bitcoin into national reserves

Strategic Bitcoin reserve hopes are all the rage

On March 6, 2025, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to establish the nation's first strategic Bitcoin reserve (SBR). This pivotal initiative positions Bitcoin alongside traditional reserves like gold and oil, signaling a significant endorsement of digital assets by the federal government. The SBR aims to centralize and manage all Bitcoin acquired through legal forfeitures, ensuring these assets serve as long-term strategic holdings rather than being sold off.

The creation of the SBR reflects Trump's broader vision of making the US a global leader in cryptocurrency. By integrating Bitcoin into national reserves, the administration seeks to harness the benefits of digital currencies while providing a hedge against economic turbulence. This strategic move has also spurred state-level policies, as seen in New Hampshire, where legislation was recently passed allowing state investments in cryptocurrencies and precious metals. Such developments indicate a growing trend of governmental adoption of digital assets, reinforcing the legitimacy of cryptocurrencies in the financial landscape.

Institutional accumulation drives down Bitcoin availability

In the private sector, institutional investors are increasingly accumulating Bitcoin. Companies like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) have expanded their holdings significantly, purchasing an additional 13,390 BTC for $1.34 billion, which brings their total to 568,840 BTC. Similarly, Metaplanet Inc. invested $126 million to acquire 1,241 BTC, surpassing the national Bitcoin holdings of some countries. This trend highlights a shift in Bitcoin ownership, with retail investors often taking profits during market rallies, leading to a redistribution of Bitcoin toward institutional entities.

As of May 13, 2025, over 19.86 million BTC have been mined. Wallets holding at least 100 BTC account for 60.84% of the total supply, while those with 10 or more BTC control 82.51%. With Bitcoin's price once again having surpassed $100K, it becomes evident that only about 17.5% of Bitcoin is held by wallets with less than $1 million in BTC. This concentration of ownership raises concerns about market accessibility for smaller investors.

The 10–100 BTC tier is primarily composed of small institutional investors, while wallets with over 100 BTC are predominantly held by institutions and liquidity providers. This oligarchic trend suggests that as cryptocurrency market caps rise, retail traders may feel pressured to sell during downturns, further consolidating wealth among larger holders. Notably, the increasing costs associated with 

, such as electricity and equipment, compel many miners — often retail investors — to sell portions of their holdings to cover expenses, exacerbating this trend.

Bitcoin concentration leaves smaller investors at disadvantage

The establishment of the SBR represents a critical milestone in the integration of digital assets into national financial strategies, positioning the US at the forefront of the cryptocurrency revolution. As of mid-May 2025, Bitcoin's price has fluctuated between $102K and $105K, maintaining an optimistic long-term outlook despite short-term volatility. Continued institutional interest, bolstered by supportive governmental policies, enhances the legitimacy and stability of Bitcoin as an asset class.

However, as smaller investors continue to sell during market rallies, larger wallets are increasingly accumulating supply, tightening their grip on the market. Currently, over 80% of Bitcoin's supply is held in wallets containing $1 million or more in BTC. This trend suggests that while individual portfolios may grow, retail investors could find themselves at a disadvantage in an increasingly concentrated market.

In conclusion, the strategic Bitcoin reserve and the surge in institutional investments signal a positive shift for Bitcoin's legitimacy and its role in the global financial system. However, the growing disparity in Bitcoin ownership underscores the need for retail investors to navigate the market carefully. As these dynamics evolve, awareness of trends in institutional accumulation and wealth concentration will be crucial for all participants in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

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Bybit x Santiment social sentiment report: Bitcoin reserve hopes leave Bitcoin holdings more concentrated

The Smart Copy Mode is a simple-to-use copy trading feature on Bybit that lets you reap profits from the crypto market even without prior trading experience.

Trading cryptocurrencies can be a lucrative way to earn from the ever-volatile crypto market. However, most people shy away from it due to the intense 

Thankfully, the world of trading now has helpful tools that have simplified crypto trading and made it easier even for beginners to make money from price movements.

First launched as part of a major upgrade in early 2023, Smart Copy Mode offers a simplified way to follow experienced traders known as Master Traders and automatically mirror their strategies. Today, it's one of the easiest and most intuitive ways for anyone, even beginning traders, to tap into the expertise of top-performing traders on Bybit and earn profits.

In this article, we’ll explore how Bybit Smart Copy Mode works and how you can safely make profits as a 

Smart Copy Mode is a simple-to-use copy trading feature on Bybit that lets you reap profits from the crypto market even without prior trading experience.

 Smart Copy Mode is part of the three major upgrades to the Bybit Copy Trading platform 

As of 2025, it remains one of the simplest and safest ways for users to realize returns from automatically mimicking successful Master Traders on the platform.

The Smart Copy Mode requires only three steps to follow a 

 and start earning. All you’ll need to do is enter an investment amount (minimum 100 USDT), select a Bybit account to transfer the funds from and click the 

The entire process is optimized for ease and risk control, making it ideal for anyone looking to trade without micromanaging their positions.

Here are some key features of the Bybit Smart Copy Mode that make it easier to trade while minimizing risks:

Rather than blindly copying a Master Trader’s full position size, Smart Copy Mode calculates a ratio based on both your balance and the Master Trader’s, helping you manage exposure proportionally.

Case in point: Let’s say a Master Trader has 10 BTC in their account but they enter a long position with only 1 BTC. In typical copy trading, a Follower who has 1 BTC in their account will automatically copy the trade with the whole 1 BTC, which exposes their entire portfolio.

However, with the Smart Copy Mode, a ratio calculated based on the available balances in the Follower’s and the Master Trader’s accounts will be exposed for copy trading. In this case, if the ratio is calculated to be 10%, the Follower’s copy trade amount will be 0.1 BTC instead of their full balance of 1 BTC. 

This proportional sizing is especially useful for beginners who may not want to expose their entire portfolio to a single trade.

Another amazing feature of the Smart Copy Mode is the Bybit CopyGuard which is designed to limit losses by adding an extra layer of protection for Followers. While most Master Traders strive to consistently implement successful trading strategies, it’s not uncommon to find some trades that will incur losses.

In such instances as a copy trader, you will incur losses similar to the Master Trader. That’s where the Bybit CopyGuard feature comes in handy.

With CopyGuard turned on, all of the Follower’s trades are optimized in the sense that the entry will always be at an optimal price not worse than that of the Master Trader. If an optimal price is not attained, the trade won’t be copied. However, note that at the point of trade execution, 

 may occur, causing small price discrepancies. However, CopyGuard filters out major price differences that could lead to instant losses. 

To give Followers even greater control over their risk exposure, Bybit now offers a Trailing Stop feature within Smart Copy Mode.

This tool automatically adjusts your exit point based on your account’s highest recorded equity. You simply set a retracement percentage (e.g., 20%), and if your equity drops by that percentage from its peak, all positions will be closed, locking in profits and limiting potential losses. 

Let’s say your account equity fluctuates as follows: 500, 450, 600, 900, 800, 1,000, 800. With a 20% retracement rate, the trailing exit equity adjusts accordingly: 400, 400, 480, 720, 720, 800, 800. When your actual equity drops to 800, the trailing stop triggers and your copy trading positions are automatically closed. 

, the final equity upon exit may differ slightly from the calculated exit equity.

The Trailing Stop feature is especially useful for volatile markets, helping you secure gains without manually monitoring every trade.

Together, Bybit’s copy by ratio, CopyGuard and Trailing Stop features work together to ensure that Followers have an extra layer of protection against losses when engaging in copy trading. 

Smart Copy Mode vs. Advanced Copy Mode: Which is better?

 allow you to choose between the Smart Copy Mode or the Advanced Copy Mode. While both provide an avenue for you to successfully copy a Master Trader’s strategy, there are several differences between the two that may make you opt for one over another. They are:

From the above comparison, it’s highly recommended to go for the Smart Copy Mode if you are a beginner to crypto or copy trading since it provides you with loss-limiting features before you learn your way around the field. For advanced traders, you can go for the Bybit Advanced Copy Mode or stick to the Smart Copy Mode.

Smart Copy Mode has made it easier to realize gains from copy trading.

 Regardless of your status as a beginning or advanced trader, you can have the assurance of a safe trading experience even with margin trading as all the risks are mitigated for you through the Smart Copy Mode.

Compared to the Advanced Copy Mode, the copy by ratio, CopyGuard 

 features within Smart Copy Mode help limit losses through reduced risk exposure. The enhanced automated settings on Smart Copy Mode are sure ways to successfully copy Master Traders without fear of wiping out your account. So, 

Beginner

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Bybit Smart Copy Mode: The way to secure copy trading profits

Invest like a VC with just $20. Common Wealth (WLTH) opens access to early-stage crypto projects through a transparent, community-driven platform.

The traditional venture capitalist (VC) investing model is often elitist and out of reach for many retail investors. While this is particularly the case in the world of traditional finance (TradFi), access to promising early-stage crypto assets is also frequently reserved for larger entities, namely institutional investors and 

. When we hear about a wildly successful crypto project and its token, we often find that its early backers are well-known investment funds or cashed-up VCs. These early investors are the ones who benefit the most from the token’s meteoric rise on the market.

 chain that aims to democratize the way VC investment works in the crypto industry. By using a community-driven approach to sourcing and investing in promising projects, the Common Wealth platform reduces barriers to entry to VC activities. Smaller-scale retail investors, both casual and experienced, are the primary beneficiaries of Common Wealth's unique approach to crypto investment.

Common Wealth has partnered with a network of notable crypto investors who refer high-potential projects to the platform, where these projects are carefully evaluated and qualified to be included in the investment products available to the user community. The entire evaluation process is also driven by community governance procedures, making it transparent and secure. Thanks to Common Wealth, investing in high-potential early-stage crypto opportunities is now open to anyone — even investors who want to start with as little as $20.

 (WLTH) is a decentralized platform that allows anyone to become a crypto VC by using a vetting-based, democratized, community-driven approach to selecting promising cryptocurrency investment opportunities.

The core idea behind the project is to tear down barriers to entry for crypto investment, particularly concerning early-stage promising ventures. Common Wealth has partnered with a group of prominent, savvy crypto investors (referred to as “Oracles”) who refer high-potential crypto investment opportunities to the platform. All the referrals are based on projects or assets that at least one so-called Oracle has personally invested in. As of May 2025, the platform works with ten Oracles, all of whom are notable investors with solid track records and standing in the crypto investment world.

The platform's governance community scrutinizes each referred project via “Oracle Ask Me Anything” (AMA) sessions, proposal workshops and analytics. Community investors then vote to decide on the projects' final eligibility. Any Common Wealth user can invest in qualified projects for as little as $20.

There are two main types of investors on the platform: casual and community members. The former typically invest smaller amounts, and pay with fiat currency using credit or debit cards, greatly simplifying access to the selected projects for users without an affinity for cryptocurrency transactions. Casual investors are normally those who adopt a hands-off approach to crypto investing and tend to start with smaller investment amounts.

Members of the second group, community members, invest larger amounts, or actively participate in the decision-making process for project selection. They’re the core of the governance community on Common Wealth. These investors use cryptocurrency to invest, paying with the 

The Common Wealth project was launched in February 2024 on the Base Layer 2 chain. In May 2025, it debuted its native token, WLTH.

All investment opportunities offered on Common Wealth are in the form of funds that provide exposure to promising projects and assets. For instance, the platform’s Priceless Fund invests in 14 high-potential 

 startup projects, while the Alpha Fund is based on early-stage projects in the areas of artificial intelligence (AI), the 

 (RWAs), decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePINs) and gaming.

Unlike traditional investment funds, Common Wealth funds are completely permissionless and noncustodial, operating through blockchain smart contracts. As such, no central entity can influence fund management, thus ensuring transparency and discouraging vested interests.

Some funds are based on contributions from the wider user community, and are typically capped funds. There are also perpetual funds, which are funded by the investor community that participates in on-platform governance.

Bundles are Common Wealth funds based on a dynamic mix of assets satisfying certain criteria, e.g., a specific crypto niche. The platform has launched three such bundled products: 

Since the bundles are dynamic, the top five assets may switch according to market sentiment. All allocations within the bundles are equally split between their five assets. For instance, if you invest $100 in a bundle, each of the five assets in it will be allocated $20 of your investment.

The Common Wealth platform charges three types of fees:

When you invest in a Common Wealth fund, you’re issued a 

 (Slice NFT) that denotes your share of capital in the fund. Slice NFTs are freely tradable on the market, investors can quickly access liquidity by selling their Slices. Since these NFTs are fractionalized, you can sell a part of your Slice or the whole of it, per your preference.

Distributed Autonomous Operating System (DAOS)

The Common Wealth Distributed Autonomous Operating System (DAOS) is based on a set of 

 that automate the entire workflow of the platform’s governance processes. Project considerations, analytics related to candidate projects, vote management and other functions related to decentralized governance are handled by the DAOS.

 (DAO) consists of a set of rules and an on-chain community, the Common Wealth DAOS is an entire permissionless system of interoperable autonomous nodes that automates and powers all the platform’s governance elements and procedures.

What is the Common Wealth crypto token (WLTH)?

 asset issued on the Base Layer 2 chain. The token has a wide range of functions on the platform. While investments in Common Wealth are based on the USDC stablecoin, all other key functionalities are enabled via WLTH. These include:

WLTH is a capped asset with a maximum supply of 1 billion. As of mid-May 2025, its total supply stands at around 984 million. The chart below shows the token's supply allocation shares and vesting periods upon its launch in May 2024.

As of May 16, 2025, the WLTH token is trading at $0.003877, which is 98.2% lower than its ATH of $0.2148 on Jul 22, 2024 and 82.8% higher than its ATL of $0.002121 on Apr 18, 2025.

Long-term price forecasts for WLTH are mostly bullish.DigitalCoinPrice 

 of $0.0129 in 2027 and $0.0192 in 2030, whileCoinCodex 

 at around $0.0042 in 2027 but rise to $0.014 in 2030.

VC investment in financial markets remains an exclusive club that isn’t easily accessible to everyday retail investors. In most cases, this applies to the crypto market as well. Common Wealth's value to the broader crypto community lies in designing a system that makes investment in promising web3 initiatives accessible to everyone. The platform's novel model creates an opportunity to involve millions of individuals in the VC game. This could lead to significant growth in overall web3-based VC funding, and positively affect the entire crypto investment landscape over the coming years. Finding a future star in the crypto market with as little as $20 has never been easier — thanks to Common Wealth and the VC tools it provides!

Intermediate

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Common Wealth (WLTH): Invest like a VC — without being one

Bybit Learn

Indicators

Unsure of whether to HODL onto your crypto? Gain a long-term perspective by using the Gaussian Channel indicator.

Technical indicators are widely used by traders to predict the future price movement of financial instruments. Amid the uncertainty in 

 price, there’s a lot of talk about the Gaussian Channel, and the ability of this indicator to predict future outcomes.

If you're HODLing Bitcoin or other financial instruments, this article can help you decide whether to hold these assets or change your strategy. We'll also discuss relevant strategies that both long-term and swing traders can use to benefit from the existing price action.

The Gaussian channel indicator is a technical indicator which defines price trends in the financial markets by minimizing the lag.

, one of the greatest mathematicians of all time. While Gauss did not have access to modern statistical software, nor did he intend to trade commodities, his statistical models have proved extremely powerful in interpreting price movements in financial markets.

The modern interpretation of the Gaussian channel indicator is based on the popular statistical concepts of normal distribution and bell curve. In technical terms, the normal distribution of data puts the mean in the center, and the standard deviations measure dispersion around the mean.

In simple words, the Gaussian channel indicator tries to predict the direction of a price trend, which can be used to trade forex, stocks, commodities and other financial instruments.

In trading software, an indicator is a channel that consists of three bands: A high band, a center band and a low band. Whenever the price enters the channel from either the top or the bottom, it signals a potential price reversal. The change of colors from red to green (or green to red) confirms the change.

Lately, the Gaussian channel indicator is gaining a lot of attention. It's in the news because crypto investors want to know if Bitcoin’s price will continue to decline further, or if it will bounce back.

If the price trend on the Gaussian channel is any indication, the weekly and daily charts of 

 suggest that we may see a bearish run in the coming months. We can easily evaluate with a glance at the weekly BTC/USD chart.

On the same note, we need to understand that the Gaussian channel indicator isn’t a Holy Grail; it can also give faulty signals. If you look closely at the previous chart, you can observe that the indicator gave a false signal in March 2020 when the price closed below the channel.

To avoid losses, traders use stop-loss and various other methods, which are discussed later in this article.

How to Use the Gaussian Channel Indicator

The indicator can be used in multiple ways. For instance, if you're bullish on Bitcoin, then wait for the price to enter the Gaussian channel. It can indicate a potential trend reversal. To confirm such a move, traders often wait for a candlestick to end above the lower band of the Gaussian channel. Once the price passes through the upper band, it's a sign of a bullish trend. A similar strategy can be used to forecast a bearish trend.

Traders who seek long-term trades can also wait for the Gaussian channel indicator to turn from green to red, or vice versa. In this case, they're likely to get a more refined signal without false alerts. However, the downside to waiting for the indicator to change color is a delay in entering the market.

While the Gaussian channel indicator is a very powerful tool to detect a trend change, it's recommended to select an entry point based on the level of risk you're willing to take. Some traders also use the middle band to initiate a trade, while others prefer an additional technical indicator to confirm a trend.

Pros and Cons of the Gaussian Channel Indicator

If used prudently, the Gaussian channel can detect a potential new trend. However, this can only help if you're also aware of the risks. Understanding such shortcomings will help formulate a viable strategy that can withstand price movements in the wrong direction.

Is the Gaussian Channel Indicator Reliable?

There isn't any universal standard to determine the reliability of any indicator. Despite this, certain factors can tell you if you should rely on technical parameters.

First, look for an indicator that offers more correct signals than incorrect ones. In theory, you’ll be profitable if you can accurately predict the trend more often than not. Despite this theory, very few traders — if any — would consider trading with such an indicator because traders usually look to gain substantial profits.

Therefore, another important metric that traders look for is the potential 

. If your indicator is only 50% correct in determining the price, but it offers a good profit-to-loss ratio per trade, it's reliable.

Ideally, a reliable indicator gives correct signals more often than not, and the profit-loss ratio is higher than 2:1.

Based on these two deciding factors, the Gaussian channel seems a very reliable indicator. This is evident from the opportunities reflected in the daily BTC/USD chart. By referring to BTC/USD's chart starting from Oct. 2020, when Bitcoin’s price took off, we can see that the indicator has accurately predicted the trend, both in trending and ranging conditions. This is in spite of the many ups and downs. If you’re a medium-term investor relying on this chart, there were at least four clear trends in either direction.

Additionally, many users tend to rely on the lower and the upper bands of the Gaussian channel indicator as support and resistance for BTC.

Technical analysis is mainly used to determine support and resistance levels. In other words, it’s only good if you're able to pinpoint exact entry and exit points on the trading chart.

Fortunately, the reliability of the Gaussian channel indicator allows traders to devise strategies that fit their trading styles. To get you started, here’s an overview of different strategies you can use:

Look for a bullish signal whenever a candle closes inside the channel from below. You can place the stop-loss at the lowest point of the existing trend. Take profit when the trend changes — i.e., the candle closes inside the channel from above.

: They say that taking a position opposite an existing trend is similar to standing in front of a train. In simpler words, you’ll quickly burn out by going against the existing trend. Instead, it’s more profitable if you follow a trend.

One way to do this is to figure out a daily or weekly trend on the chart. If the long-term trend is bullish, only make a bullish trade. If the long-term trend is bearish, make a bearish trade.

When you follow the trend, you're likely to find a very reasonable profit-to-loss ratio. In the above example, the false entry would have stopped you within a few points, considering that the stop-loss is just above the top of the last candlestick. However, the subsequent entry would reap substantial benefits even with another tight stop-loss.

: Sometimes, the trend is not as clear as you’d like to see. In this case, it's better to use another indicator to confirm the price action. These days, most popular software offers various "moving average crossover" indicators. You can use 

 (MA) crossover to get in and out of a trade quickly during a ranging market.

The Gaussian channel indicator is a powerful tool which can accurately forecast a future trend. You can either use it as a stand-alone indicator, or in conjunction with another indicator to confirm the signal. Irrespective of your trading style, there’s little doubt that the Gaussian channel indicator can provide accurate entry and exit signals in a variety of time ranges and market conditions.

Gaussian Channel Indicator and Long-Term Crypto Perspectives

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