In this article, we cover key economic releases amidst Trump's tariff hikes and resulting recession fears. We also look at what investors are watching leading up to the May 6 FOMC meeting, and how it might affect global markets and Bitcoin.

It's a tricky time for global financial markets, with worries swirling around US trade policy and its potential economic effects. Big tariff hikes in the ongoing US-China trade war have made the future feel uncertain, shaking things up for traders and investors.

As everyone tries to make sense of it all, key economic reports are giving us clues. Meanwhile, all eyes are on the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on May 6-7, 2025, for hints about where interest rates might be headed. Let's break down the latest data and look ahead to what the Fed might say.

Economic numbers released so far in April have significantly influenced market sentiment amid trade tensions and policy questions. These reports offer a snapshot of the US economy's health just before the newest tariffs start making their mark.

The US job market is still holding up, though some details suggest caution. Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 12 

. That's the lowest since February, and better than the 225,000 applications economists predicted, suggesting companies didn't immediately cut jobs after US president Donald Trump's 

However, continuing claims — the number of people receiving unemployment benefits after the first week — edged up slightly to 1.89 million for the week ending April 5. While new claims are low, higher continuing claims compared to a year ago suggest it might be getting tougher for laid-off workers to find new jobs. A strong job market could mean the Fed feels less pressure to cut interest rates, potentially helping the US dollar but weighing on riskier assets like stocks and crypto.

Good news arrived with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report 

, showing inflation cooled more than expected in March. Headline CPI dipped 0.1% from the previous month, pulling the yearly rate down to 2.4% (from 2.8% in February), below the 2.6% Wall Street forecast.

More importantly for the Fed, core CPI (excluding food and energy) only nudged up 0.1% monthly. This brought the annual core rate down to 2.8%, its lowest since March 2021 and better than the 3% forecast. Lower energy costs — especially gas (−6.3% MoM) — played a big part. While softer inflation usually supports rate cuts, the looming impact of tariffs complicates things, as these duties are expected to push prices higher.

Following the encouraging CPI numbers, the Producer Price Index (PPI) on April 11 also pointed to easing costs for producers. Headline PPI 

 in March against forecasts of a 0.2% rise, slowing the annual rate sharply to 2.7% from 3.2%. Core PPI also fell 0.1% month-over-month, bringing its yearly rate to 3.3%.

Falling energy prices were again a major factor. But the report wasn't all positive — it showed early signs of tariffs hitting, with wholesale iron and steel mill prices jumping 7.1% in March, the biggest monthly leap since April 2021. If these input costs keep rising due to tariffs, it could squeeze company profits and push bond yields higher.

Markets have been volatile, reacting to economic data and trade policy shifts. US stocks saw big swings, with the S&P 500 reacting to both tariff fears and inflation news. When Trump 

 (excluding China) on April 9, it sparked a major relief rally. The S&P 500 had its 

, gaining 9.5% following the news, but overall uncertainty still lingers.

Bitcoin's price certainly reflected this turbulence. Following the April 1 JOLTS report

 from $82,563 to hit a recent high of $86,891 on April 2. However, the gains didn't last, as the price subsequently fell to $74,830 by April 7 amid intensifying US-China trade war tension. 

A recovery brought BTC back to $83,020 by April 10, but it dipped again before getting a boost from the better-than-expected core PPI report on April 11. This pushed the price up from $79,664 on April 11 to $84,074 by April 17. As of April 22, 2025, Bitcoin is trading at around $88,000.

As the US dollar weakened and recession worries grew, gold prices 

, hitting record highs as investors sought safety in the precious metal.

Fed FOMC on May 6–7: What are investors watching?

The upcoming FOMC meeting on May 6–7 is a key focus for traders seeking clarity on interest rates. Markets widely expect the Fed to keep the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50%. Although March's inflation cooled somewhat, it's still above the Fed's 2% target. Officials have signaled patience, especially with the job market looking stable — something Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently described as being in 

Most investors will watch the FOMC's statement and Powell's press conference for changes in tone, especially regarding tariffs. Fed officials like New York Fed President John Williams have acknowledged tariffs will likely boost inflation and slow growth.

 GDP growth could fall below 1% and inflation could rise to between 3.5% and 4% this year, due to tariffs and less immigration, stating it's "simply too early to know the answers" because of the uncertainty. Powell himself also noted signs the economy might have slowed in the first quarter.

While a May rate cut looks highly unlikely — the 

 shows slim odds — investors will listen for hints about when future cuts might occur. Market analysis suggests a cut at the June 18 meeting is more likely than not. Further out, markets might be pricing in about 

, but predictions vary (from one cut to five). Any sign that cuts could be delayed beyond June, or that the Fed is more worried about inflation, could negatively impact risk assets such as crypto.

Current market sentiment has sunk to extreme fear territory for the past month. Tariffs and recession fears drove a sharp sell-off in global markets and crypto, while economic data is sending mixed signals — a strong job market alongside cooling March inflation right before new tariffs hit.

The upcoming FOMC meeting is pivotal. A rate hold is expected, but the Fed's view on tariff impacts and future rate cuts will be critical. Crypto and equity traders should pay close attention to Fed communications and economic data in order to navigate the uncertainty and adjust their strategies.

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Macro this week: Tariffs, recession fear and the Fed’s next move ahead of May 6 FOMC meeting

BTC's price moves in response to the Fed's announcements, as its decisions on interest rates, inflation and liquidity impact investor sentiment and risk appetite.

 might be decentralized, but its price movements are influenced by global events, including US monetary policy. Every time the US Federal Reserve makes a statement or shifts its tone, Bitcoin traders react swiftly. Why does a traditional institution such as the Fed have such a strong grip on the crypto market? This article examines how and why BTC’s price responds to Fed announcements, from interest rate decisions to inflation outlooks.

​The Federal Reserve (the Fed) is the independent central bank of the United States, tasked with managing monetary policy to promote maximum employment and stable prices and to moderate long-term interest rates. Its decisions ripple through every financial market, including cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.

The Fed’s primary functions include the following:

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the Fed’s policy‑making body, 

 of the Board of Governors, the president of the New York Fed and four rotating presidents of regional Federal Reserve Banks. They meet eight times a year to review economic conditions and set policy.

Decisions made during these meetings — especially regarding interest rates — are highly anticipated by financial markets. Traders analyze not only rate decisions but also the tone of the Fed’s statements. A "hawkish" tone signals higher rates to fight inflation, while a "dovish" tone suggests looser policy that aims to stimulate growth.

As the issuer of the world's primary reserve currency, the Fed's policy decisions have global ramifications, influencing borrowing costs and impacting assets such as bonds, equities, commodities and even cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. This global impact explains why traders and investors closely analyze these statements and adjust their strategies accordingly. 

Key Fed events that have triggered BTC volatility

From interest rate decisions to inflation commentary and economic outlooks, key communications from the Fed often lead to sharp swings in BTC’s price.

Why does BTC’s price move every time the Fed speaks?

BTC’s volatility in response to Fed speeches boils down to macroeconomic influence. Fed announcements shape expectations for inflation, interest rates and liquidity, which are key factors for crypto markets. Following are some real-world reactions.

September 2024 — Fed cuts rates by 50 bps

 its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point. This move was more aggressive than the 25 bps cut many investors had anticipated.

Following the announcement, Bitcoin's price surged toward $61,000. The larger-than-expected rate cut signaled increased liquidity and a more accommodative monetary policy, boosting investor confidence in risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. 

 at 4.25%–4.50% while tapering quantitative tightening, announcing a reduction in Treasury rolloffs from $25 billion to $5 billion per month. Despite downgrading growth forecasts, the Fed maintained three rate cuts in its 2025 projections, and avoided hawkish rhetoric on inflation overshoot. 

Bitcoin responded by skyrocketing 20% to $86,000 with traders interpreting these signals as sustained monetary support. This surge demonstrated how a dovish hold — coupled with clear guidance on balance sheet policy — can unleash rapid risk‑asset appreciation.

On Apr 16, 2025, Fed Chair Jerome Powell 

 that Trump’s new tariffs could drive inflation higher while choking off growth, mirroring 1970s‑style stagflation. He said the Fed would “wait and see” before shifting interest rates. Bitcoin briefly jumped toward $86,000 as traders eyed it as an inflation hedge, but then tumbled about 2.5% to roughly $83,700 within minutes, mirroring a broader stock sell‑off. By the next day, BTC had climbed back near $85,000 as markets digested the news.

Powell’s comments added uncertainty to the Fed’s policy outlook. While some view Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and a way to escape traditional financial risks, it still tends to move with risk assets like stocks, often falling on poor economic news.

What traders and investors are really reacting to

When the Fed speaks, crypto traders read between the lines. Every speech, press release or policy statement is scrutinized for forward guidance.

Trading Bitcoin around major news — especially when it comes to the Fed — requires a disciplined approach.

The bigger picture: Is BTC becoming more macro sensitive?

Yes. Bitcoin's price is becoming more influenced by broader economic trends, such as monetary policies and financial market dynamics. In its early years, Bitcoin's value was driven mainly by internal factors like technological advancements and crypto-specific sentiment. However, with growing institutional adoption, Bitcoin has become more tied to traditional financial markets.

For instance, in March–April 2024, BTC 

, echoing similar rallies in stocks and bonds. This move demonstrated how Bitcoin’s price is now closely tied to macro liquidity and institutional trading flows, behaving more and more like a high-risk asset.

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Bitcoin’s price reacts to Federal Reserve announcements because the Fed’s policies on interest rates, inflation and liquidity directly impact investor risk appetite and market dynamics. Rate hikes or cuts alter the appeal of risk assets such as BTC, while inflation fears or economic uncertainty drive demand for alternatives. Traders monitor Fed signals to anticipate liquidity changes and adjust strategies, cementing BTC’s role as a macro-influenced asset. As institutional adoption grows, Bitcoin increasingly mirrors traditional markets’ sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts.

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Explainer: Why does BTC’s price move every time the Fed speaks?

Walrus is a decentralized storage protocol that efficiently manages large data files (blobs) through an innovative encoding method called Red Stuff. Learn more.

 systems excel at managing decentralized computation, but struggle with efficiently storing and retrieving substantial chunks of data. Enter Walrus (WAL), a groundbreaking decentralized storage protocol built on the 

Designed to solve storage limitations while maintaining the security and decentralization principles of 

, Walrus represents a significant advancement in blockchain infrastructure. This article explores what Walrus is, how it works and why it might be the future of decentralized data storage.

 is a decentralized storage protocol that efficiently manages large data files (blobs) through an innovative encoding method called Red Stuff. It operates on the Sui blockchain with a network of independent storage nodes to ensure high integrity, availability and authenticity for 

Walrus emerged from Mysten Labs, creators of the high-performance Sui blockchain. Recognizing a fundamental challenge in web3, the team set out to solve the problem of efficient data storage that had plagued blockchain systems since their inception.

Mysten Labs identified that traditional approaches required complete data replication across all validators, creating exponential costs at scale. This inefficiency made storing substantial files prohibitively expensive and limited blockchain applications.

The team developed the revolutionary Red Stuff encoding protocol, delivering the speed and efficiency of centralized storage while preserving principles of decentralization. In March 2025, Walrus secured $140 million in funding, led by Standard Crypto, with participation from a16z crypto, Electric Capital and Franklin Templeton Digital Assets.

Walrus tackles the fundamental problem of storage inefficiency in blockchain systems. Traditional blockchains require every validator to replicate all data, creating exponential costs as networks scale. Such inefficiency has prevented widespread adoption of decentralized storage for data-intensive applications.

Walrus solves the cost barrier through its innovative Red Stuff encoding technology. By eliminating unnecessary redundancy but maintaining security, Walrus dramatically reduces storage expenses as compared to existing solutions. The resulting cost structure makes decentralized storage economically viable for everyday applications that were previously priced out of the market. 

In addition, Walrus addresses the scalability limitations that plague current decentralized storage networks. Existing solutions often collapse under large datasets, while Walrus's architecture efficiently handles terabytes of information across 

, gaming assets, social media content and AI data. 

Finally, Walrus resolves the centralization problem inherent in traditional storage solutions. By removing single points of control, Walrus prevents censorship and unauthorized data manipulation. Applications built on Walrus benefit from guaranteed data availability and integrity, free from centralized authority interference.

Walrus uses Red Stuff encoding with two-dimensional erasure coding to store and retrieve data efficiently. The protocol achieves faster processing across its storage network by employing simple XOR operations instead of complex calculations.

 (DPoS) consensus model, whereby users stake WAL tokens to participate. 

 with higher stakes store and serve data during each epoch, aligning economic incentives with network security.

When users upload files, Walrus divides them into "slivers" distributed across multiple nodes, creating redundancy that preserves availability even when some nodes fail. Operations are organized into epochs, with committees of storage nodes managing network data, while Sui blockchain integration handles coordination, verification and economic incentives.

Walrus offers several innovative features that enhance its functionality as a decentralized storage solution.

 WAL tokens to participate in network operations, while storage providers stake to secure validator positions. Malicious behavior faces swift consequences via slashing penalties targeted at dishonest participants.

The protocol distributes rewards to storage nodes based on their staked amount and performance. Reliable operation and data integrity receive financial incentives, encouraging operators to maintain a long-term commitment, since they benefit from the network's continued growth.

WAL staking empowers token holders with governance authority over the protocol's future. Stakeholders vote on critical upgrades, parameter adjustments and strategic initiatives, ensuring Walrus evolves according to community needs, rather than vis centralized decision-making.

Walruscan serves as the comprehensive network explorer for the Walrus ecosystem, offering transparency into all operations. The dashboard presents real-time storage metrics, currently tracking approximately 309 TB used across 3.5 million blobs within the total available capacity of 4,123 TB.

Users can monitor network activity, including writes, reads and node performance. These metrics allow users to evaluate storage providers based on actual performance rather than marketing claims, helping them select reliable operators for their specific needs.

Walruscan also verifies data availability and provides detailed statistics on pricing, staking amounts and reward distribution. By making these metrics publicly accessible, the explorer fosters accountability and trust between users and service providers while providing valuable insights for investment and development decisions.

NFT projects can leverage Walrus to securely store metadata and digital assets. The protocol's tamperproof storage ensures the longevity and authenticity of valuable digital collectibles while maintaining consistent accessibility.

Decentralized social media platforms can benefit from Walrus's ability to store user-generated content efficiently at scale. Images, videos and text can be distributed across the network without relying on centralized servers, creating truly censorship-resistant platforms.

AI development teams can utilize Walrus to maintain data provenance throughout the machine learning lifecycle. Datasets create verifiable records of origin and modifications, critical for regulatory compliance and ethical AI development.

DApps can overcome storage limitations through Walrus integration. Because computation is separated from storage concerns, DApps can handle larger datasets without sacrificing decentralization principles, while blockchain gaming can achieve new levels of asset persistence and player ownership.

Walrus achieved a major milestone in March 2025 with its successful mainnet launch, securing immediate listings on prominent exchanges such as Bybit. Prior to this, the team conducted rigorous testing of the Red Stuff encoding algorithm while attracting $140 million in funding from leading investors.

For Q2 2025, Walrus plans to establish strategic partnerships with major DApps across multiple blockchain ecosystems. Its Q3 2025 road map focuses on security enhancements with encrypted storage and customizable access control systems, particularly benefiting users with sensitive data requirements.

In Q4 2025, Walrus will prioritize network scaling and performance optimization in order to handle increasing data volumes while maintaining efficiency. Looking to 2026, development will center on comprehensive developer tools, including language-specific SDKs and integration frameworks to simplify building with Walrus.

 powering the Walrus ecosystem. Its maximum supply is 5 billion tokens. WAL enables storage payments, validator staking and governance participation across the network.

Walrus’s tokenomics model creates natural demand as users purchase storage with WAL, while validators stake tokens to secure operations and earn rewards. Governance rights empower WAL holders to vote on upgrades and parameter adjustments, ensuring the protocol evolves according to stakeholder priorities.

The WAL token is to be allocated as follows: 

WAL’s distribution will follow a strategic release schedule extending to March 2033, with vesting periods ranging from 50 months to 8 years.

WAL's price trajectory is closely tied to Walrus's growth as a decentralized storage solution for web3 applications. Currently trading at approximately $0.4138 (as of Apr 17, 2025), WAL has shown promising momentum following its recent mainnet launch and exchange listings.

While cryptocurrency price predictions are inherently speculative, several analysts have offered forecasts for WAL's future value. CoinCodex 

 $0.50 and $1.04 in 2026, with an average price of $0.75. Looking further ahead to 2030, CoinCodex forecasts suggest a range from $1.12 to $1.59.

DigitalCoinPrice offers a similar outlook, predicting that 

 $0.81 and $0.97 by the end of 2026, with the most likely price hovering around $0.90. For 2030, DigitalCoinPrice anticipates WAL potentially crossing the $2.00 threshold.

These projections suggest a positive long-term outlook for WAL, supported by growing demand for decentralized storage solutions. However, WAL's future value will ultimately depend upon Walrus's technological development, widespread adoption across various web3 sectors and broader cryptocurrency market conditions.

Looking to trade Walrus tokens? Bybit now offers the WAL/USDT Spot trading pair. To get started, you'll first need to create a Bybit account, then fund it with cryptocurrency and navigate to the 

While Walrus demonstrates innovative technology and strong backing in the decentralized storage space, investors must carefully weigh its growth outlook against potential risk factors.

WAL shows promising potential, with substantial financial backing and innovative encoding technology. Increasing demand for decentralized storage solutions provides a favorable market environment. However, potential investors should 

, particularly given Walrus's early position in its development journey.

Walrus revolutionizes web3 data storage by combining innovative Red Stuff encoding with Sui blockchain technology to deliver efficient, secure solutions for NFTs, social platforms, AI, gaming and DApps. With substantial funding, technical advantages and growing market need, Walrus demonstrates tremendous potential for the future of web3 data management.

walrus crypto.png

Walrus (WAL): Your solution for large-scale data on web3

The proposal suggests replacing Ethereum’s current execution layer (EVM) with RISC-V, aiming to improve scalability, simplify the execution layer, and boost efficiency.

The S&P 500 dropped 2.36% as all sectors fell amid Fed concerns and China trade tensions. Gold hit a record high above $3,450 amid rising haven demand driven by recession fears, USD weakness, and Trump’s attacks on Fed Chair Powell. Market uncertainty and geopolitical tensions continue to support the rally. Despite the pullback, the uptrend remains intact. The Coindesk Indices, which tracks the broader crypto market, are down by 0.63%, Bitcoin rose 3.33% while Ether fell 0.81% over the past 24 hours. Trade these markets and more with up to 500x leverage on Bybit MT5 using this 

Today's top performer is BERA, up 3.0%, following Berachain's Governance Guardians announcement, new ecosystem projects, and community updates.

Berachain (BERA), launched in August 2021, is a high-performance Layer 1 blockchain that uses a Proof-of-Liquidity consensus mechanism to enhance network security through ecosystem liquidity. It offers Ethereum compatibility with EVM-identical execution. 

 saw the launch of Governance Guardians, new ecosystem projects like BeraToners and Lair Finance, and collaborations between Berachain projects like Euler and Beraborrow. The community remains active with multiple initiatives and ongoing promotions.

Check out the latest prices, charts, and data of 

 suggests replacing Ethereum’s current execution layer (EVM) with RISC-V, aiming to improve scalability, simplify the execution layer, and boost efficiency. This change would allow smart contracts to remain compatible with existing Ethereum infrastructure while providing significant optimizations for the execution of smart contracts, especially in relation to zk-EVM proving. RISC-V-based smart contracts could bring efficiency gains of up to 100x in certain cases, particularly by optimizing time-consuming processes like state computation and block execution. Two potential implementation paths are proposed: maintaining dual VMs (EVM and RISC-V) or transitioning to a RISC-V interpreter for EVM contracts. This change could simplify the execution layer and enhance the long-term scalability of Ethereum.

Yesterday, BTC spot ETFs saw $339.7M in total inflows, with $303.1M from non-GBTC funds and $36.6M from GBTC.

, with an airdrop to follow. Users can earn points by depositing tokens such as ETH, USDC, and USDT. Those who previously participated in the Cred farming season and ranked in the top 31,250 can now claim their SuperAlien NFTs by minting all rewards on the site.

Beginner

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Vitalik Buterin's proposal to replace Ethereum's EVM with RISC-V for enhanced scalability and efficiency

Trading

Indicators

Tired of whales suddenly turning the crypto market on its head? Know where and when big money is flowing with the Chaikin Money Flow indicator.

Chaikin Money Flow Understanding What and When Whales Are Buying

Two main players in the financial markets are the large whales and the small retail traders. The large institutions and whales are the ones who typically move the market’s pricing, whereas the small retail trader typically doesn’t. Therefore, the small retail trader can gain an edge if they can spot where the big money is flowing.

Technical indicators like the Chaikin Money Flow are designed to alert traders when the market is accumulating and set to rally higher. In this article we’ll review what the CMF is, and how to read it so you can spot where the big money is flowing. 

The Chaikin Money Flow indicator tells traders if institutions, whales and investors are accumulating and buying crypto, or distributing and selling the market. Essentially, CMF indicates the money flow behind crypto.

The Chaikin Money Flow indicator (CMF) was created by stock analyst Marc Chaikin in the early 1980s as a way to measure the strength of a trend combined with the volume behind it. The CMF assumes that not all price trends are created equal. A price trend that’s moving higher, but closing each day near its low, is a weak uptrend compared to one with daily closes near the highs.

Trading volume also factors into a trend’s strength. An uptrend on weak or slowing volume is a sign of a weakening uptrend. On the other hand, strong and growing volume is a healthy sign of a strong uptrend.

The CMF was designed to mix these variables into one easy-to-read indicator that prints below the price chart and helps traders identify buying and selling pressure within the market.

What the Chaikin Money Flow Indicator Looks Like

The CMF appears as a line or area graph in a window, separate from the crypto’s price chart, oscillating between −100 and +100. This range makes it a bounded oscillator.

Many charting packages offer the CMF with the default setting of 20. However, a better default setting when using the CMF for crypto is 21 or 28, since many of the other markets only trade five days per week — and those markets contain about a four-week cycle of 20 trading days. This allows the indicator to capture a full cycle.

Crypto trades 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Therefore, 20 trading days is less than three full weeks. A 21 input setting allows for three full weeks, and a 28 input setting allows for a full four-week cycle.

The most important point within the CMF indicator is the zero line. When the CMF is above zero, the crypto trend is said to be higher. When the CMF is below zero, then the trend is considered to be lower. There may be instances where the price is moving higher, but on weakening volume. In those situations, the CMF prints lower readings, alerting the trader to slowing momentum to the upside.

There are three parts to the calculation of the Chaikin Money Flow.

The first part includes figuring the money flow multiplier.

Then, find the product of the money flow multiplier above and the total volume for that period.

Lastly, add up the products above for the number of periods set within the indicator (recommended 28 periods) and divide the result by the 28-period sum of the total volume.

As a result, the CMF depends on the value of the money flow multiplier. This value is positive when the closing price is above the midpoint of the range, and negative when the closing price is below the midpoint of the range.

If the volume is heavy, then that multiplier swings even further away from the zero line. If the volume is light, then the effect of the multiplier is muted.

Like any indicator you apply to the charts, the Chaikin Money Flow indicator has its strengths and weaknesses. Once you’re familiar with its pros and cons, you can carefully apply the indicator to help maximize results.

 indicator. Therefore, it’s most useful when applied to trending markets, where it helps crypto traders determine the strength and direction of a trend.

Once a trend loses strength, that loss of momentum appears in the indicator as divergence, alerting crypto traders to a potential trend change.

Like all indicators, the CMF isn’t always 100% accurate, and. a trader needs to keep the CMF’s limitations in mind. For example, when the market isn’t trending, the propensity for false signals increases dramatically  — especially when there’s volatility of price. 

This is because the CMF indicator utilizes a moving average of the price and volume. The moving average of these variables tends to lag, and won’t react as quickly to abrupt changes in market conditions.

The CMF indicator has two primary uses: to determine trend direction, and trend strength.

Determining trend direction is fairly easy. First, the zero line is the barrier dividing an uptrend from a downtrend. When the CMF indicator is above zero, price and volume trends are present, suggesting that the trend is strong or growing.

When the CMF indicator is below zero, the price and volume trends are implying a downtrending market.

In many instances, the CMF indicator will hover right around zero. This generally happens during a pullback within an uptrend or a rally within a downtrend. A pullback to the zero line offers crypto traders an opportunity to enter new positions in the direction of the trend.

At important pivot points within the larger trends, divergence will appear using the CMF. Divergence is when the price is moving in one direction, but the CMF indicator is moving in the opposite one.

For example, in the daily Bitcoin chart above, notice how during March and April 2021 Bitcoin’s price continues to move higher while the CMF creates a series of lower highs. These lower highs on the CMF occur because the closing price of the daily candles isn’t in the upper portion of the day’s range. 

Additionally, if the volume of trades on the up days is relatively muted — or the volume of trades on the down days is heavy — then the volume portion of the CMF will weigh heavily on its output.

The opposite is true when the market is correcting lower. When the price continues to dip and reach lower lows, look for the CMF to form higher lows as a sign of bullish support.

During the summer of 2021, Bitcoin corrected quickly, reaching its lowest closing price since January 1. Though the correction was aggressive, the inability of the CMF indicator to follow price lower was a clue that buying interest was developing for Bitcoin.

After the bullish divergence appeared, Bitcoin went on to double its price over the next several months.

Chaikin Money Flow vs. Chaikin Oscillator

Though similarities exist between the Chaikin Money Flow and the Chaikin Oscillator, the math behind each of the indicators and how to interpret their signals is quite different.

Both indicators were created by Marc Chaikin. However, the oscillator operates similar to the 

 (MACD) indicator, due to its use of two exponential moving averages. The MACD indicator calculates momentum by comparing the 12-period and 26-period exponential moving averages.

The Chaikin Oscillator (CO) uses the 3-period and 10-period exponential moving averages of the CMF, and is said to be in an uptrend when the indicator is above zero. When the CO indicator is below zero, then a downtrend is in force.

Some traders prefer using the Chaikin Oscillator, as it tends to react more quickly to reversals in the market.

For example, on the Ethereum price chart above, notice how the Chaikin Oscillator crosses the zero line before the Chaikin Money Flow indicator. This is because the CO is using exponential moving averages to capture the momentum of the market.

The CMF is useful in determining trends and divergences. However, making it a core part of a trading strategy leaves the strategy flawed and susceptible to whipsaws. 

Therefore, here are three suggestions for additional tools to use with the CMF to strengthen its signals.

Buying the market when the CMF falls to zero is a good way to buy the dip. But how can you tell if this is just a dip, or a larger correction that may carry the CMF significantly below zero and into a new downtrend?

One way around this is to add buffers to both sides of the zero line. A common buffer used by crypto traders is +0.05 and −0.05.

Therefore, when the CMF is dipping back to zero, the crypto trader won’t sell until −0.05 is broken to the downside. Once −0.05 is broken to the downside, then the probability of a larger correction increases.

Similarly, a trader won’t buy until the CMF crosses back above the +0.05 mark. That way, even if the CMF dips briefly below zero, we have confirmation that the crypto market may continue to accelerate higher.

One drawback to using the CMF as a stand-alone indicator is that identifying risk and take-profit levels can be elusive and inconsistent. Therefore, incorporating another indicator to confirm the trend will help traders identify risk and take-profit levels, complementing the CMF nicely.

For example, applying a 9-period and 34-period 

 (EMA) to the chart can act as a timing tool for entering and exiting a position. The trader would first look for the CMF to be above zero, then take only long positions when the 9 EMA crosses above the 34 EMA. A moving average crossover strategy is a common way to enter into positions.

Similarly, a sell signal is indicated if CMF divergence appears, or if the CMF drops below zero. 

, we can use trend lines to help indicate potential pivot zones.

On the daily price chart for Ethereum, above, we can see a long-term support trend line is in place from March 2020. This trend line has supported the Ethereum price through the entire uptrend of 2020 and the correction of 2021.

A trader may notice that when the price corrects lower in the summer of 2021, Ethereum merely revisits the trend line support.

At that point, the CMF indicator is hovering near the zero line, indicating that the longer-term trend is still pointed higher. In this instance, the CMF confirms the longer-term trend, and the trend line would be the timing indicator to enter.

An Ethereum trader could buy on the touch of the trend line and place a stop-loss just below the trend line. If the trend line breaks, then the mood of the market is changing, and the trader will want to exit the trade.

After bouncing higher in July 2021, Ethereum comes back to retest this trend line in September 2021, then bounds higher.

The Chaikin Money Flow indicator can be useful for spotting momentum-related trends like when big whales are moving in the crypto market. It’s a simple indicator that’s easy to read. However, the CMF is not a perfect indicator by itself, which is why many traders combine it with other tools, such as moving averages and trend lines.

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF): Understanding When Whales Are Buying

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