Bybit x Santiment: Tariffs-led whipsaw solidifies Bitcoin’s resilience

Key highlights:

• Tariffs announcement: Current US president Donald Trump introduced a universal 10% tariff on imports and higher specific rates for countries like China and Japan, signaling a major shift in US trade policy.

• Market reaction: Following the announcement, traditional markets saw significant declines, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dropping over 5%, reflecting investor fears of economic instability.

• Risk of trade war: Critics warn that the aggressive tariff strategy could provoke retaliatory actions from other nations, leading to a trade war detrimental to global markets.

• Investor sentiment: The cryptocurrency community remains cautiously optimistic, as Bitcoin's performance amidst market turmoil indicates a potential shift in investor perception.

• Bitcoin stability: Bitcoin showed resilience, trading at around $81.7K, suggesting it may be viewed as a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainties.

Tariff-led trade war

On Apr 2, 2025, Donald Trump announced aggressive US tariffs, including a universal 10% levy on all imports alongside specific rates of 34% on China, 24% on Japan and 20% on the European Union (EU), while the absence of tariffs on Russia was a notable exception. This policy shift resulted in significant volatility in both traditional and cryptocurrency markets.

The timing of Trump's announcement was widely speculated to be strategic, occurring shortly after US stock markets closed in order to mitigate immediate market reactions. However, the following day, Apr 3, 2025, saw substantial declines: the S&P 500 dropped over 5.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell more than 5.6%, reflecting investor anxieties about potential economic disruptions and heightened inflation. 

This marked the fifth-worst trading day of the 2020s, with parallels drawn to the infamous Black Thursday in March 2020. But in stark contrast, Bitcoin displayed remarkable resilience, trading around $81.7K, a mere 6% drop from its local bottom of $77K recorded on Mar 10, 2025. This stability suggests that investors may increasingly be viewing cryptocurrencies as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainties, since Bitcoin’s decentralized nature allows it to operate independently of tariffs and supply chain disruptions that affect traditional assets.

Trump characterized the tariff announcement as the beginning of a "Liberation Day," introducing a two-tier system where the universal 10% tariff would take effect on Apr 5, 2025, while reciprocal tariffs targeting around 60 countries would follow on April 9. This reciprocal approach aims to counterbalance existing tariffs imposed by other nations on American products, pushing countries and regions like China, Japan and the EU to reconsider their trade policies. During his speech, Trump presented a chart illustrating the disparities in tariff rates, using it to justify the administration's stance on the need for these measures to correct long-standing trade imbalances.

Extreme measures and potential backlash

The implications for Asian countries are particularly severe, with many facing the highest tariffs, including Cambodia at 49%, Laos at 48% and Madagascar at 47%. Economists who favor proactive trade policies view these tariffs as a negotiation tactic, often referred to as a "game of chicken," whereby the US essentially dares other nations to either accept new, more favorable trade terms or face increased costs for their exports to the US. 

Trump argues that many countries impose heavy taxes on American goods that make them less competitive abroad. He believes that by introducing these tariffs, other nations will be compelled to lower their own export taxes on US products, fostering fairer trade conditions. However, critics warn that this strategy could backfire, potentially igniting a trade war damaging to every country and area involved. They express concerns that retaliatory tariffs from other countries might lead to increased costs for American consumers and economic uncertainty for businesses. 

The success of Trump's tariff policy ultimately hinges on whether other nations choose cooperation over confrontation. Proponents of the strategy argue that countries might fear losing access to the lucrative US market, prompting them to negotiate more favorable terms for American exports. If successful, this could theoretically boost US jobs and profits.

In summary, as the situation evolves, the effects of these tariffs on global trade dynamics and market stability remain to be seen, with potentially far-reaching implications for both traditional and cryptocurrency markets.

Bitcoin’s resilience

Amidst the tumultuous landscape created by the recent tariff announcements, Bitcoin has demonstrated a surprising level of resilience. Despite the significant volatility affecting traditional markets, Bitcoin maintained robust support around $80K, showcasing its ability to withstand external economic pressures. This stability is particularly noteworthy when compared to mainstream public equities, which experienced substantial declines in response to the tariffs.

The magnitude of Bitcoin's price drawdown was considerably less severe than that of many established stocks, highlighting its unique position in the financial ecosystem. While indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite plummeted over 5%, Bitcoin's relatively mild decline suggests that investors may increasingly view it as a safe haven and alternative asset during times of economic uncertainty.

This resilience can be attributed to several factors. First, Bitcoin's decentralized nature allows it to operate independently of traditional market dynamics and geopolitical influences, making it less susceptible to the same shocks that impact equities tied to physical goods and international trade. Additionally, the growing acceptance of cryptocurrencies as a legitimate asset class has bolstered investor confidence, leading to a more stable demand for Bitcoin, even in volatile environments. In particular, Strategy’s (formerly MicroStrategy) continued accumulation of Bitcoin and BlackRock’s launch of ETP products in Europe continues to cement Bitcoin’s unique position in equity portfolio allocation.

Furthermore, the current market sentiment indicates a shift in the way that investors perceive Bitcoin, particularly as an effective hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks. As traditional markets grapple with the ramifications of aggressive tariff policies, Bitcoin's ability to hold steady at the $80K level may attract more institutional interest, reinforcing its position as a viable alternative investment.

In conclusion, Bitcoin's resilience within the tariff-induced volatility not only highlights its potential as a digital asset, but also suggests a broader acceptance among investors seeking diversification and stability in uncertain economic times. This comparative strength against mainstream equities could signal a pivotal moment in the evolution of cryptocurrency as a mainstream financial instrument. 

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